where's me country?

Mystic Mog

12.28.2005

Im not sure if many of you followed the Euro Tribune countdown to $100-oil series. Basically a contributor placed a bet on seing $100-oil by year end 2005. As we are all aware that has not happened. So admitting defeat, Jerome begins 2006 with some predictions and a competition.

His last attempt at prediction was quite clearly wrong and he has quite an amusing cartoon to point this out. (I tried to get the toon into the post but IE kept screwing up the site.)

Still, I know there are a vast number of switched on souls in the irish blogosphere who would be more than able to tackle his final four posers in the 2006 competition. Prize btw is a bottle of French Champagne or Whiskey-your choice.

The four posers are as follows:

1. What will be the highest price for oil in 2006? (As usual, you may choose your benchmark. If not provided, WTI will be the default option). And as an additional twist to that question (to be used to determine the winner if needed), what will be the proximate cause of that high?


2. What will be the year-end price for oil in late December 2006?


3. Same questions for natural gas: year high, and end-year prices, in $/mbtu, using Henry Hub (prices in $/boe will be accepted as well)


4. On what date will 100$/bl oil be reached? And same addendum - what will be the proximate cause?

Jerome's own bet:

Highest: 240$/bl, after a US bombing raid on Iranian nuclear facilities, in October

Year-end 90$/bl

Natgas highest: 25$/mbtu after a cold spell in March. Year-end: 17$/mbtu

100$/bl oil reached in October

My Own Prediction:

Highest: $86/bl following another onset of driving season mania followed quickly by Winter Fuel Worries. Geopolitics may be less unstable this year but oil's trend upward is still intact on my view.

Year End: $75 Retracement begins once U.S. begins to release strategic reserves and industrialised countries try to reign in unnecessary consumption for a while.

Nat Gas: Perhaps a high of around $17 in spring year end retracement toward $10 or less as trend looks to be broken and reversing.

Nat Gas Highest: Probably Spring time when the U.K. and others make the announcement that a huge new gas infrastructure is to be built and many worry that North Sea Supply is unable to sustain the new infrastructure. Coupled with cold weather in US and worries about fuel. Those in Ireland on the Scottish pipeline are equally worried by supply issues.


Your turn.

RR


Categories: Oil, Markets, Economics

This entry was posted on 12.28.2005 at 12/28/2005 01:35:00 p.m.. There are . If you want, you can leave your own response by clicking here. You may also send this post to a friend of yours via email, or bookmark it for yourself by using icons below;